Probability: definitions and interpretations¶

I will be a little formal 1 for a moment here as we construct this mathematical notion of probability. First, we need to define the world of possibilities. We denote by \(\Omega\) a sample space, which is the set of all outcomes we could observe in a given experiment. We define an event \(A\) to be a subset of \(\Omega\) (\(A\subseteq\Omega\)). Two events, \(A_i\) and \(A_j\) are disjoint, also called mutually exclusive, if \(A_i \cap A_j = \emptyset\). That is to say that two events are disjoint if they do not overlap at all in the sample space; they do not share any outcomes. So, in common terms, the sample space \(\Omega\) contains all possible outcomes of an experiment. An event \(A\) is a given outcome or set of outcomes. Two events are disjoint if they are totally different from each other.

We define the probability of event \(A\) to be \(P(A)\), where \(P\) is a probability function. It maps the event \(A\) to a real number between zero and one. In order to be a probability, the function \(P\) must satisfy the following axioms.

The probability must be nonnegative; \(P(A) \ge 0\) for all \(A\).
The probability that an event was drawn from the entire sample space is one; \(P(\Omega) = 1\).
The probability of the empty set is zero; \(P(\emptyset) = 0\). Along with the previous axiom and the requirement that \(P(A)\) range from zero to one, this essentially says that only events in the sample space are allowable outcomes.
If \(A_1, A_2, \ldots\) are disjoint events, then

\[\begin{aligned} P\left(\bigcup_i A_i\right) = \sum_i P(A_i). \end{aligned}\]

This means that probability is additive. The probability of observing an event in the union of disjoint events is the sum of the probabilities of those events.

Putting together these axioms, we see that probability consists of positive real numbers that are distributed among the events of a sample space. The sum total of these real numbers over all of the sample space is one. So, a probability function and a sample space go hand-in-hand. For many of our applications, the sample space consists of set of numbers like the real numbers, integers, and subsets of real numbers and integers.

Interpretations of probability¶

Before we go on to talk more about probability, it will help to be thinking about how we can apply it to understand measured data. To do that, we need to think about how probability is interpreted. Note that these are interpretations of probability, not definitions. We have already defined probability, and both of the two dominant interpretations below are valid.

Frequentist probability.¶

In the frequentist interpretation of probability, the probability \(P(A)\) represents a long-run frequency over a large number of identical repetitions of an experiment. These repetitions can be, and often are, hypothetical. The event \(A\) is restricted to propositions about random variables, quantities that can very meaningfully from experiment to experiment. 2 So in the frequentist view, we are using probability to understand how the results of an experiment might vary from repetition to repetition.

Bayesian probability.¶

Here, \(P(A)\) is interpreted to directly represent the degree of belief, or plausibility, about \(A\). So, \(A\) can be any logical proposition, not just a random variable.

You may have heard about a split, or even a fight, between people who use Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of probability applied to statistical inference. There is no need for a fight. The two ways of approaching statistical inference differ in their interpretation of probability, the tool we use to quantify uncertainty. Both are valid.

In my opinion, the Bayesian interpretation of probability is more intuitive to apply to scientific inference. It always starts with a simple probabilistic expression and proceeds to quantify plausibility. It is conceptually cleaner to me, since we can talk about plausibility of anything, including parameter values. In other words, Bayesian probability serves to quantify our own knowledge, or degree of certainty, about a hypothesis or parameter value. Conversely, in frequentist statistical inference, the parameter values are fixed (they are not random variables; they cannot vary meaningfully from experiment to experiment), and we can only study how repeated experiments will convert the real parameter value to an observation.

That is my opinion, and I view fights over such things counterproductive. Frequentist methods are also very useful and powerful, and in this class, we will almost exclusively use them. Next term, we will use almost exclusively Bayesian methods.

The sum rule, the product rule, and conditional probability¶

The sum rule, which may be derived from the axioms defining probability, says that the probability of all events must add to unity. Let \(A^c\) be all events except \(A\), called the complement of \(A\). Then, the sum rule states that

\[\begin{aligned} P(A) + P(A^c) = 1.\end{aligned}\]

Now, let’s say that we are interested in event \(A\) happening given that event \(B\) happened. So, \(A\) is conditional on \(B\). We denote this conditional probability as \({P(A\mid B)}\). Given this notion of conditional probability, we can write the sum rule as

\[\begin{aligned} \text{(sum rule)} \qquad P(A\mid B) + P(A^c \mid B) = 1, \end{aligned}\]

for any \(B\).

The product rule states that

\[\begin{aligned} P(A, B) = P(A\mid B)\, P(B),\end{aligned}\]

where \(P(A,B)\) is the probability of both \(A\) and \(B\) happening. (It could be written as \(P(A\cap B)\).) The product rule is also referred to as the definition of conditional probability. It can similarly be expanded as we did with the sum rule.

\[\begin{aligned} \text{(product rule)} \qquad P(A, B\mid C) = P(A\mid B, C)\, P(B \mid C), \end{aligned}\]

for any \(C\).

Bayes’s Theorem¶

Note that because “and” is commutative, \(P(A, B) = P(B, A)\). We apply the product rule to both sides of this seemingly trivial equality.

\[\begin{aligned} P(A \mid B)\, P(B) = P(A, B) = P(B,A) = P(B \mid A)\, P(A). \end{aligned}\]

If we take the terms at the beginning and end of this equality and rearrange, we get

\[\begin{aligned} \text{(Bayes's theorem)} \qquad P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(B \mid A)\, P(A)}{P(B)}. \end{aligned}\]

This result is called Bayes’s theorem. This result holds for probability, regardless of how it is interpreted, frequentist, Bayesian, or otherwise.

Marginalization¶

Let \(\{A_i\}\) be a set of outcomes indexed by \(i\). Then,

\[\begin{split}\begin{aligned} 1 &= P(A_j\mid B) + P(A_j^c \mid B) \nonumber \\ &= P(A_j\mid B) + \sum_{i\ne j}P(A_i\mid B) \nonumber \\ &= \sum_iP(A_i\mid B).\end{aligned}\end{split}\]

Now, Bayes’s theorem gives us an expression for \(P(A_i\mid B)\), so we can compute the sum.

\[\begin{split}\begin{aligned} \sum_iP(A_i\mid B) &= \sum_i\frac{P(B \mid A_i)\, P(A_i)}{P(B)} \nonumber \\ &= \frac{1}{P(B)}\sum_i P(B \mid A_i)\, P(A_i) \nonumber \\ &= 1. \end{aligned}\end{split}\]

Therefore, we have

\[\begin{aligned} P(B) = \sum_i P(B \mid A_i)\, P(A_i).\end{aligned}\]

Using the definition of conditional probability, we also have

\[\begin{aligned} P(B) = \sum_i P(B,A_i) \end{aligned}\]

This process of eliminating a variable (in this case the \(A_i\)’s’) in the joint distribution by summing is called marginalization.

1: But not too formal. For example, we are not discussing \(\sigma\) algebras, measurability, etc.
2: More formally, a random variable transforms the possible outcomes of an experiment to real numbers.